COMPLETING EUROPE: WHY THE WESTERN BALKANS MATTER

Challenges and the Role of European Federalism

The Western Balkans, comprising Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo have been on the EU’s enlargement agenda since the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit, which set integration as a priority. The accession process is merit-based, governed by the “Copenhagen Criteria”. These require candidate countries to demonstrate stable democratic institutions, a functioning market economy, and alignment with EU legislation (acquis communautaire). The process involves multiple stages: applying for membership, obtaining candidate status, negotiating accession chapters, and ratifying an accession treaty.

However, and despite progress, the path to EU membership remains complex.

Major challenges for all candidates

The Western Balkans face significant hurdles in their EU accession journey. Geopolitically, the legacy of the 1990s Yugoslav conflicts complicates reconciliation efforts, particularly in Serbia-Kosovo relations and Bosnia’s internal governance. The disputes between North Macedonia and Bulgaria concerning ethnic identity issues add more to the political complexity of the region.

Economically, the region’s slow income per capita convergence with the EU requires accelerated reforms and integration into the EU’s single market. Politically, EU enlargement fatigue and the need for internal EU reforms pose additional obstacles. Public support for enlargement varies across EU member states, and ratification of accession treaties by national parliaments remains uncertain.

Institutionally, the Western Balkans struggle with weak rule of law, judicial inefficiencies, and widespread corruption. The European Commission’s 2024 reports emphasize the need for robust judicial reforms and anti-corruption measures across the region. Public administration is often politicized, undermining democratic institutions. Limited progress in digital and green transitions, coupled with fragmented regional markets, hampers competitiveness.

Countries-specific issues

Montenegro (accession planned for 2028) is the most advanced Western Balkan candidate, having opened accession negotiations in 2012. It has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and provisionally closed three, with a political goal to complete negotiations by the end of 2026 and achieve membership by 2028. Recent progress, including meeting interim benchmarks for rule of law chapters, supports this ambitious timeline.

Despite its lead, Montenegro faces challenges in fully implementing rule of law reforms, particularly in combating high-level corruption and ensuring judicial independence. Political instability and organized crime remain serious concerns.

Albania (accession planned for 2029) gained candidate status in 2014 and began accession negotiations in July 2022. Since October 2024, it has rapidly opened 24 out of 33 chapters, positioning it as a frontrunner. Albania could conclude negotiations by 2027, potentially enabling membership by 2029, assuming timely ratification.

However its polarized political landscape hinders consistent reform implementation. Additionally, aligning complex legislation with the EU acquis remains a significant task.

Serbia (accession planned for 2030) started negotiations in 2014 and has opened 22 chapters. However, its progress has been slower, and it is not projected to complete negotiations before 2028, with membership potentially by 2030.

Delays are attributed to Serbia’s lack of alignment with EU foreign policy and stalled reforms. Its accession is stalled by its reluctance to align with EU foreign policy, particularly sanctions against Russia, and its failure to advance Serbia-Kosovo normalization talks. Domestic issues, including authoritarian tendencies and recent protests over lithium mining and infrastructure failures, further complicate its path.

North Macedonia is a candidate since 2005. It began accession negotiations in July 2022 after resolving a naming dispute with Greece via the 2018 Prespa Agreement. However, Bulgaria has stalled progress, demanding constitutional amendments to recognize a Bulgarian minority and address historical and linguistic disputes. Bulgaria insists Macedonian identity and language have Bulgarian roots, a claim North Macedonia rejects. The EU urges reforms, but Bulgaria’s veto, tied to identity issues, continues to block North Macedonia’s path.

Bosnia and Herzegovina applied for EU accession in 2016 and received candidate status in 2022. Currently, it is working on fulfilling 14 key priorities set by the European Commission, focusing on reforms in democracy, rule of law, and economic criteria to advance further.

The country faces significant hurdles in its EU accession. These include political instability, ethnic divisions between the three groups of Bosniacs, Serbs and Croats, and a complex constitutional framework. Corruption, weak rule of law, and slow judicial reforms hinder progress.

Kosovo is a potential EU candidate, having applied for membership in December 2022. Its application awaits Council approval for an opinion from the European Commission. Non-recognition by five EU states—Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain—poses a major obstacle, requiring unanimous consent for progress. Other challenges include rule of law, corruption, and stalled Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, hindering participation in EU programs.

The role of the European federalist movement

The European federalist movement, advocating for a more integrated and unified Europe, should focus on promoting a revitalized and inclusive enlargement process for the Western Balkans. Its primary wish should be to ensure that EU enlargement remains a credible and merit-based pathway, fostering regional stability and democratic values.

To achieve this, federalists should primarily advocate for streamlined EU accession processes. They should push for institutional reforms within the EU, such as introducing qualified majority voting for interim negotiation stages, to reduce vetoes and accelerate progress.

We must further encourage regional solidarity. Western Balkan countries should present a united front in their integration efforts, amplifying their influence and demonstrating solidarity, as success for one benefits all. Our federalist partners in those countries should play a role in this respect.

European federalists must also foster public engagement. They should promote campaigns to build public support for enlargement within the EU, countering skepticism and highlighting the geopolitical and economic benefits of a larger, stronger Union.

Finally, we must steadily support the vital reforms needed. We must advocate for increased EU financial and technical assistance, like the Growth Plan, to support structural reforms in candidate countries, ensuring they meet the Copenhagen Criteria.

About the author:

Yannis Karamitsios is a lawyer from Greece, based in Brussels. He is an active member of the European federalist movement and author of the book ‘Time for a European Federation’ (Peter Lang, 2021)